Released in September 2020 by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG)

Urgency is growing behind the necessity to proportion production of sustainable fuels if aviation is to satisfy its climate targets. As more countries and their aviation industries plan to net-zero emissions by 2050, they're putting low-carbon fuels on the critical path to achieving that goal.

The scale-up challenge is gigantic . Barely 0.01% of the 96 billion gal. (364 billion liters) of jet fuel consumed by the world’s airlines in 2019 was sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). But announced projects should boost production from just 60 million gal. in 2020 to 1 billion gal. per annum by 2025, says the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI). And unannounced projects could add another 1 billion gal. per year, taking the industry on the brink of its target of accelerating SAF use to twenty by 2025, the International air transportation Association (IATA) says.

Europe’s sustainable fuel initiative is pending

Biden administration is predicted to act on SAF

Released in September 2020 by the cross-industry air transportation Action Group (ATAG), the Waypoint 2050 sustainability blueprint identifies three scenarios for a way the aviation industry can meet its goal. altogether of them, SAF is important . the foremost aggressive SAF deployment scenario would wish 116-151 billion gal. per annum of SAF production by 2050. Even the foremost aggressive fielding of electrical and hydrogen propulsion technologies would still require 62-90 billion gal. per year.

And that is simply to satisfy aviation’s aspirational goal of halving its net CO2 emissions by 2050, from 2005 levels. While that focus on is in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature rise to well below 2C (35.6F), aviation will need to make even more aggressive cuts in carbon emissions if it's to assist achieve the well-liked target of 1.5C. That path could require global aviation to succeed in net-zero emissions by 2050 and demand another 38 billion gal. per annum of SAF production capacity, says ATAG.

Identifying the rapid and global scaling from SAF as “perhaps the only largest opportunity to satisfy and transcend the industry’s 2050 goal,” Waypoint 2050 concludes aviation will likely need 150-170 billion gal. per annum by 2050. The report recommends airlines “make substantial and bold SAF offtake agreements at an early stage,” governments prioritize aviation as a user of other fuel and therefore the energy industry “demonstrate substantial commitment to sustainable aviation fuel production and scale-up.”

The message from ATAG’s study is repeated across regional reports. The Destination 2050 decarbonization road map unveiled in February by the ecu aviation sector charts a course to net-zero emissions by 2050 that involves the lion’s share of reductions (46%) to return from SAF. Necessary actions identified by the report include a coherent long-term policy framework, an EU-wide blending mandate and therefore the ability to use 100% SAF in aircraft, up from the present 50% blend limit.

Looking more locally, the united kingdom aviation industry’s February 2020 commitment to realize net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 set specific targets for SAF production—14 plants producing 1.3 billion gal. per annum by 2035, with the output set to extend to five .7 billion gal. per annum by 2050. to supply an initial boost to the world , the report called on the united kingdom government to supply £500 million ($698 million) in funding over five years, matched by industry, to support construction of first-of-kind commercial plants.

The story is being repeated globally. In January 2020, France released a road map to exchange 2% of jet fuel with SAF by 2025 and 5% by 2030, with the target of reaching 50% by 2050. In September, Germany published a draft law requiring airlines to use 1% SAF by 2028 and a couple of by 2030—but only “power-to-liquid” synthetic fuels produced using renewable electricity and captured CO2.

Some countries have taken action. In January 2020, Norway introduced the primary SAF blending mandate. It involves just 0.5% initially but targets 30% SAF by 2030. Sweden followed with a mandate beginning at 0.8% in 2021 and increasing to 27% by 2030. Denmark, Finland, Netherlands , Spain et al. are expected to follow. This trend of local action worries the aviation industry, which wants a worldwide approach.

Having introduced its Corsia carbon offsetting scheme to enable carbon-neutral growth in international flying from 2021, a scheme under which SAF can reduce an airline’s obligations, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is now working to define a long-term goal for CO2 reductions. This approach is looking across technology, operations and fuels and can be presented to the ICAO Assembly in 2022.

und, ATAG has started analyzing what nAgainst this backgroeeds to be done over subsequent 10 years to realize what the industry ultimately sets as its target. The deep dive will check out what percentage SAF production facilities are needed and where. Results are going to be wont to brief governments, the energy industry and finance community on the specified next steps in scaling up SAF.

Some regions and airlines may decarbonize faster than others, says Michael Gill, executive of ATAG. But, through a mixture of technology, operations and SAF, “we think with the proper policy and technology advances we will potentially look to net-zero aviation on a worldwide basis by 2060-65,” he says.

The market has already began to move within the right direction, with more producers, politicians, airlines and their customers getting involved in scaling up SAF.

One trend in 2020 was a shift of the limited SAF supply to cargo airlines because the pandemic hit passenger operations. Shell Aviation began supplying SAF from World Energy to Amazon Air within the U.S. and from Neste to DHL Express at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport. Atlas Air conducted a test flight, and Air France KLM Martinair Cargo introduced a program enabling shippers and forwarders to book flights employing a percentage of SAF.

Also, 2020 saw an uptick of interest in Asia, with All Nippon Airways (ANA) signing a contract with Neste for SAF supply at Tokyo’s Haneda and Narita airports. And Japan Airlines conducted the primary commercial flight with SAF produced in Japan, employing a fuel made up of discarded cotton clothing.

Airlines also involved their customers. Microsoft purchased SAF credits from SkyNRG for employee flights on Alaska Airlines, and Deloitte signed a contract with Delta Air Lines for corporate travel using SAF from Neste. The deals echo the company biofuel program pioneered by KLM and SkyNRG.

But the steady flow of stories in recent months has come from the fuel producers. they need been encouraged by developments like the inclusion of SAF under ICAO’s Corsia scheme and low-carbon fuel standards in situ in California and Oregon and into account in other U.S. states also as Canada.

One of the more significant moves was LanzaTech’s decision in June 2020 to bear SAF producer Lanza-Jet. LanzaTech converts industrial waste gases into ethanol, and Lanza-Jet upgrades ethanol to SAF using an alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) process. In February 2021, British Airways (BA) announced an investment in LanzaJet and an agreement to require fuel from its first commercial plant within the U.S., with deliveries beginning in late 2022.

LanzaJet, during which ANA is already an investor, has an aggressive decide to have four plants operational by 2025 producing 100 million gal. per annum of SAF. These won't include a possible UK plant to be planned under the BA deal, says LanzaJet President Jimmy Samartzis, or the EU-supported Flite project to create a precommercial ATJ plant in Europe to be operational by 2024.

“I feel we've to bend the curve as quickly as possible,” LanzaTech CEO Jennifer Holmgren told the Atlantic Council’s 2021 Global Energy Forum in January. “The longer it takes to bend the curve, the harder it's getting to be to possess a true impact. and that i think sustainable aviation fuel may be a key thanks to bend the carbon curve and do something within the aviation industry now.

direct air capture plant i

Climeworks is building its first direct-air-capture plant in Iceland. Credit: Climeworks

“What I wanted to try to to is build the 10-million-gal.-per-year plant to supply SAF as quickly as possible. and that i felt that by creating a corporation outside of LanzaTech I could do this ,” she says. The move also brought in investors, like ANA and BA, that were already prepared to finance additional SAF plants.

More countries are getting involved, with first-of-kind plants planned in Canada, France, Germany, Netherlands , Spain, Sweden, and therefore the UK, also as Paraguay and therefore the Philippines—if billions of dollars in investment are often raised. Most of those new plants are scheduled to become operational in 2024-25.

While most of the announced projects involve producing SAF from waste—vegetable oils, industrial gases, agricultural and forestry residues also municipal solid waste—there may be a growing focus in Europe on power-to-liquid, or e-fuels, due to the potential to supply a carbon-neutral fuel.

In February, KLM completed the primary commercial flight on a partial blend of synthetic kerosene produced by Shell from CO2, water and renewable energy. At an equivalent time, two e-fuel projects were announced within the Netherlands: Zenid in Rotterdam is to supply SAF using CO2 direct air capture, and Synkero in Amsterdam plans to supply SAF from CO2 and green hydrogen. Other e-fuel production projects are planned in Denmark, Germany and Norway.

Swiss direct-air-capture pioneer Climeworks is a component of the Zenid consortium also as Norway’s Norsk e-Fuel project. Additionally, Climeworks is partnering with Lufthansa and Synhelion to develop technology to supply SAF from captured CO2 using concentrated solar energy . United Airlines is additionally investing in direct-air-capture technology, but with an eye fixed to permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere through sequestration as a replacement for carbon offsetting.

The increased interest in e-fuels, and in hydrogen for zero-emission aviation, has some concerned that it could distract attention and investment from the near-term scale-up of SAF production using proven biomass-to-fuel pathways. “The issue with both is that they move within the wrong direction with reference to fuel cost and total societal investment, while the environmental improvement isn't necessarily greater,” says Steve Csonka, CAAFI executive .

Much will come right down to how governments legislate and incentivize SAF. the ecu Commission’s (EC) RefuelEU Aviation initiative to spice up supply and demand for SAF within the EU is predicted to be released in April. this is often likely to be a carrots-and-sticks package of measures.

Several countries are calling for a eu blending mandate. However, the Fueling Flight Project, an aviation industry stakeholder group, warned in January that prime near-term SAF mandates may drive unsustainable behavior, like the diversion of land to satisfy demand. The group, which incorporates EasyJet, called on the EC to prioritize fuels made up of wastes and captured carbon.

In the U.S., meanwhile, the Biden administration is promising significant commitments on SAF following its decision to rejoin the Paris Agreement. On Feb. 25, the U.S. and Canada renewed their cooperation on climate protection and committed to realize net-zero aviation emissions by 2050. The announcement promised policy actions to extend supply and demand for SAF.

Legislation is already before Congress. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Act introduced by Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Calif.) in February proposes several policy options to incentivize SAF production, including an investment decrease to finance new facilities, funding support and a federal aviation-only low-carbon fuel standard.

As in Europe, the U.S. aviation industry is wary of any blending mandate. “The evidence suggests the market isn’t ready for a mandate for SAF,” says Nancy Young, vice chairman for environmental affairs at industry group Airlines for America. “It would just find yourself monopolizing a few of producers that are out there and keep the costs really high.”

Building a foundation for the SAF industry to be more competitive may be a better way, she says. A key challenge facing aviation in scaling up capacity is that plants built to supply SAF also can produce biodiesel and do so at higher margins for the fuel producers due to the less rigorous specifications.

Released in September 2020 by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG)

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